Week 5 Patriots vs Colts advanced stats: | Forum

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huangjian123 Nov 6 '18

 New England faces a successful red zone team tonight The New England Patriots will host the Indianapolis Colts later today in a much anticipated primetime matchup. The rivalry between the two clubs – at least according to Colts general manager Chris Ballard – is back on after all Youth Devin McCourty Jersey , which makes for plenty of intrigue leading up to the game. Whether or not the actual product on the field will be more competitive than it has been ever since Andrew Luck became Indianapolis’ quarterback remains to be seen, though.But before going too deep into the projection business, let’s take a look at some of the advanced stats heading into the game (courtesy of SB Nation’s Bill Connelly; for his methodology please click here).Patriots offense vs Colts defenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldThe Patriots offense has been inconsistent between its own 10 and the opponent’s 30-yard line so far this season, but has typically been able to put itself into favorable third down situations when compared to the rest of the league. Indianapolis’ defense, on the other hand, has been pretty mediocre in almost all open field statistics. Standard down success rate – teams need to gain 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down for a play to count as successful – is the outlier, as the Colts have struggled to keep opponents from gaining significant yardage compared to down and distance.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineWhile inconsistent in the open field, the Patriots offense actually has been one of the most successful units in the NFL when it comes to getting drives started while being backed up inside its 10-yard line. An interception in week one hurts the turnover rate but in general New England usually has been effective playing deep in its own territory. Indianapolis’ defense, on the other hand, has again been mediocre even when finding itself in good field position.Red ZoneEven though New England’s offense scored on all 12 of its red zone trips so far this season – eight touchdowns and four field goals –, the unit has had some issues in terms of efficiency. As a result, seven of the Patriots’ red zone scores came in either third or fourth down situations. Interestingly enough, the Colts defense has been solid in this area: especially between the 11 and 20 and near the goal line Indianapolis has been able to limit the offensive impact.Third DownsThe Patriots’ offensive success on third down tells an interesting story. While the team is among the NFL’s best in converting third-and-longs with more than seven yards needed to gain, it has struggled in medium and short-range situations. Indianapolis’ defense Youth James White Jersey , meanwhile, has been below average on third down with the only noticeable outlier coming on third-and-medium (between two and six yards out).Blitz SituationsWhen finding itself in blitz situations – obvious passing downs specified as first-and-18 or more, second-and-14 or more, and third-and-3 or more –, the Patriots offense has been pretty successful. However, the same goes for the Colts defense: Indianapolis’ sack rate and big-play percentage are among the best in the NFL. While teams have been able to move the football on long-distance passing downs, the team has limited its impact in part due to a productive pass rush.Patriots defense vs Colts offenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldEven though New England usually employs a bend-but-don’t-break approach when it comes to playing defense, the unit has been quite effective between the opponent’s 10 and its own 30 through the first quarter of the season. Only the standard down success rate and third down success rate have been below average. And while the former should not pose a problem against the Colts offense – especially without T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron –, the latter very well could: Indianapolis has converted half of its open field third downs.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineThe battle between the Patriots defense and Colts offense projects to be an interesting one when Indianapolis’ unit is backed up: while New England has been successful in such situations, head coach Frank Reich’s team has not. This is something that the Patriots could try to take advantage of today by playing aggressive when in favorable defensive field position. It would not be a surprise to see the team use blitz packages against an up-and-down offensive line when it finds itself inside its own 10-yard line.Red ZoneNew England faces a rather successful red area team tonight. The Colts offense has been above average in all categories except goal line success and did not once turn the football over inside an opponent’s 30-yard line. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, has had its ups and downs in such situations. Third DownsWhile New England’s defense has been able to create favorable third downs through the first quarter of the season, it oftentimes failed to take advantage: the team ranks below the average in all three efficiency categories. Meanwhile, the Colts offense has been the class of the NFL when it comes to converting third downs. Overall, the team gained a new set of downs on 32 of its 62 attempts this season – 51.6% and best in the league. This certainly is an area in which the Patriots need to show improvement tonight to limit Andrew Luck’s chances and simultaneously giving Tom Brady additional time on the field.Blitz SituationsEven though Andrew Luck missed all of 2017 due to a shoulder injury, he has been a pretty good quarterback so far this year. The Colts’ success in obvious passing situations reflects this. The question entering tonight’s game , however, is how much it could suffer due to the aforementioned absences of T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, two of Indianapolis’ core offensive skill position players. With the duo unavailable, the Patriots could be in a position to improve their rather mediocre statistics when it comes to defending clear pass plays.As can be seen above, the Patriots and the Colts have their areas of strength – and they primarily lie on offense. Consequently, it could very well be defense that decides tonight’s game one way or another. And considering that Indianapolis’ will be short-handed due to to the injuries to two of its most prolific players, New England appears might have an advantage heading into the contest.Patriots TE Dwayne Allen restructures his contract and locks down his roster spot New England Patriots tight end Dwayne Allen restructured his contract, per ESPN’s Field Yates, in a move that should guarantee the second-year Patriot another season with the team. Allen was previously scheduled to earn $4.5 million in base salary in 2018 and $6.9 million in 2019. He has a $500,000 roster bonus for each year.Allen will take a pay cut for 2018 after collecting a mere 10 receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown last season. He grew as a blocker over the course of the season, but the team favored then-rookie tight end Jacob Hollister as a receiver in the red zone.The Patriots are likely to have the same trio of tight ends for the second-straight year with Rob Gronkowski, Allen, and Hollister serving as the depth chart.This restructure reminds me a bit of what Danny Amendola did for the Patriots on multiple occasions in order to remain with the team. Amendola took a huge pay decrease with the opportunity to earn back some money with incentives, ultimately dropping from $6.5 million to $1.7 million in 2017. I would expect Allen to have a similar restructure.Allen will likely make more than the veteran minimum, but any agreement in pay decrease means that Allen can be penciled in on the 2018 roster.